Predictive validity of specialty choice data from AAMC graduation questionnaire. Association of Medical Colleges

: Several previous studies have used data from the Association of American Medical Colleges' annual graduation survey to address questions about medical students' specialty preferences. Only recently, however, has it become possible to test the validity of these data as indicators of the specialties in which students will actually receive training. Comparisons of 1983 graduation questionnaire data with data on the third-year residencies for the same cohort reveal that the specialty preferences indicated on the questionnaire were good predictors of the residency programs the respondents were in during the third year following graduation.