Model‐based reconstruction of the succession dynamics of a large river floodplain

Most large rivers in Europe and North America suffered flow regulations and channelization in the 19th and 20th century. To study the effects of the altered site conditions on the development of floodplain vegetation and create a benchmark map for their restoration, we calibrated and applied a dynamic floodplain vegetation model that accounts for the processes recruitment as well as morphodynamic disturbance and physiologic stress on vegetation to reconstruct the succession dynamics of the floodplain vegetation of a segment of the Rhine River from shortly after it was channelized (1872) until today (2016). The model calibration was based on historical maps and hydrologic data. Our simulation demonstrated a steady, one‐way progression of the vegetation communities towards mature phases without regression to younger stages. It was possible to attribute this development to a lack of morphodynamic disturbances strong enough to reset succession and to identify physiological stress caused by long inundations periods as the most relevant controlling factor of succession. The resulting vegetation distribution (2016) can be considered an estimation of the potential natural vegetation (PNV) under altered site conditions. The good agreement of the model results with an expert‐based PNV map showed that our approach is a good alternative to create benchmark maps for floodplain conservation and restoration projects. From a research and practitioners' viewpoint, it has the big advantage over the traditional approach that it allows to analyse different points in time as well as to be comprehensive and reproducible.