Stand und Ausblick der geowissenschaftlichen Kohlenwasserstoff-Forschung

Until far into the next century Germany will be largely dependent for its primary energy consumption on an energy mixture of fossil fuels. Taking into account the depletion midpoint for conventional oil between 2010 and 2015 chiefly natural gas but also coal will become increasingly important. Considerable success in geoscientific hydrocarbon research has recently been achieved in the development and use of3D seismics so thatfacies development, porosity and new previously unknown structures can be analysed. The different media in the source rocks, oil, gas or water can be recognised. When 3D seismics are repeated at various time intervals the level of oil depletion of a deposit can for example be calculated. The method then becomes 4D seismics. Further examples of recent developments quickly put to pragmatic use are basin models that allow a better identification of the oil and gas windows as well as the hydrocarbon geochemistry with oil source rock correlations and reconstruction of the maturity history. In the case offuture hydrocarbon potential which will have to be researched in the forefield of industrial activities, in the marine sector, continental slopes that are at 75 million km 2 bigger than all continental basins, have a high priority. It is estimated that potential source and reservoir rocks with corresponding structures occur in the different plate rims. Gas hydrates, solid aggregates of water and methane, that have been observed in permafrost areas and as bottom simulating reflectors in the marine sector, probably have an enormous energy potential for the future. Coal bed methane, deep gases from deeply buried basin areas also have future potential. In Germany prospection areas for Pre-westphalian deep gas occur in western and northwestern parts of the North Sea, in the Ems estuary as well as in the Emsland and to a smaller extent in the Usedom/Rugen region. Successful exploration needs change in paradigm, as the past has shown us again and again. It is only long-range geoscientific hydrocarbon research that will make this possible.