Logistic Regression Model for Entrepreneurial Capability Factors in Tourism Development of the Rural Areas with Bayesian Inference Approach

The logistic regression model is used to analyze the entrepreneurial capability factors in the rural area's tourism development with the Bayesian inference approach due to a small number of sample sizes. This study is conducted with sixty nascent entrepreneurs from the rural areas at Nagari Batang Barus of Solok regency in West Sumatra, Indonesia. Scaled categorical response variable indicated by insufficient, sufficient, average and excellence as the response category are used to measure the entrepreneurial capability of the respondents. The predictor variables are demographic dimensions, namely gender, education level, and occupation. At the same time, the variables of the entrepreneurial dimension are indicated by entrepreneurial motive, working motive, social motive, individual motive, and economic motive. The result shows that only the predictor variables of social motive and entrepreneurial motive affect significantly with a hit ratio of 76.67%. This model has a better fit by using Bayesian logistic regression with a small sample size. Social motive and entrepreneurial motive have the main rule in developing tourism business in the rural area based on the character of the local inhabitant and creative economy.