A framework to identify marginal electricity production technologies for consequential life cycle assessment: A case study of the electricity sector

Abstract Policy decisions to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon and renewable electricity have long-term environmental consequences resulting from marginal energy technologies that change the generation mix. The identification of these technologies requires a robust analysis from multiple perspectives. This research develops a novel framework that integrates market penetration modelling, long-term bottom-up energy system modeling, and life cycle assessment to identify marginal suppliers as a consequence of policy decisions in energy systems. The framework was applied as a case study to the fossil-fuel- based electricity generation sector for the province of Alberta, Canada. Nine technology-focused scenarios (both renewable and non-renewable) were developed to investigate the effects of renewable energy penetration under various technology and policy alternatives. Wind energy generation shows significant penetration in all scenarios; the highest is 55.2% in 2050. The penetration of renewable energy could lower the greenhouse gas emissions of the mix up by to 74.6 kg CO2 eq/MWh in renewable energy scenarios. With the marginal cost range of 38.6–54.4 $/MWh, wind power generation appears to be the most competitive technology in all scenarios. It was determined that combined cycle and wind energy are the key marginal electricity suppliers in Alberta’s transition to a cleaner grid.