Predicting Time From Metastasis to Overall Survival in Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer: Results From SEARCH

Abstract Objective To identify the predictors of time from initial diagnosis of metastatic castration-resistance prostate cancer (mCRPC) to all-cause death within the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital cohort. Patients and Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of 205 mCRPC men. Overall survival was estimated and plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method. The uni- and multivariable overall survival predictors were evaluated with the Cox proportional hazards model. A nomogram was generated to predict overall survival at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years after mCRPC. Concordance index and calibration plot were obtained. Results A total of 170 men (83%) died over a median follow-up of 41 months. In univariable analysis, older age, more remote year of mCRPC, nonblack race, greater number of bone metastasis, higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, shorter PSA doubling time, and faster PSA velocity at mCRPC diagnosis were significantly associated with shorter overall survival (all P P Conclusion The use of clinical parameter such as age, disease burden, and PSA levels and kinetics can be used to estimate overall survival in mCRPC patients.