Decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in African countries during 1984‒2014

Abstract The potential for mitigating climate change is growing worldwide, with an increasing emphasis on reducing CO2 emissions and minimising the impact on the environment. African continent is faced with the unique challenge of climate change whilst coping with extreme poverty, explosive population growth and economic difficulties. CO2 emission patterns in Africa are analysed in this study to understand primary CO2 sources and underlying driving forces further. Data are examined using gravity model, logarithmic mean divisia index and Tapio's decoupling indicator of CO2 emissions from economic development in 20 selected African countries during 1984−2014. Results reveal that CO2 emissions increased by 2.11% (453.73 million ton) over the research period. Gravity centre for African CO2 emissions had shifted towards the northeast direction. Population and economic growth were primary driving forces of CO2 emissions. Industrial structure and emission efficiency effects partially offset the growth of CO2 emissions. The economic growth effect was an offset factor in central African countries and Zimbabwe due to political instability and economic mismanagement. Industrial structure and emission efficiency were insufficient to decouple economic development from CO2 emissions and relieve the pressure of population explosion on CO2 emissions in Africa. Thus, future efforts in reducing CO2 emissions should focus on scale-up energy-efficient technologies, renewable energy update, emission pricing and long-term green development towards sustainable development goals by 2030.