Dynamics of environmental conservation: Evaluating the past for a sustainable future

Abstract The biodiversity of the Cerrado biome is endangered. Ensuring its quality requires maintaining its biogeophysical characteristics, and environmental studies must consider space-time scales and sustainable perspectives to balance environmental, economic, and social needs. This study evaluates environmental conservation in a hydrographic basin in Brazil’s Sao Paulo state and proposes integrating two types of spatial analysis generally applied separately. The Land Change Modeler was used to model future land use by using artificial neural networks and CA-Markov. Environmental conservation levels were obtained through multicriteria evaluation for three scenarios, verified through field visits and the application of an ecological diversity protocol. Significant changes were noted, primarily related to anthropic disorders, with land use map values for 2028 indicating dominant trends in the anthropized area and silviculture. Priority areas for conservation are the reservoir, Brazilian Cerrado, wetlands, bodies of water, riparian forest, and silviculture. Fragmented natural vegetation was identified in regions with springs and high, but dispersed, values of environmental conservation. Mean and minimum values anticipated increase, indicating a tendency for degradation, which could be mitigated by incentive policies for preservation and conservation. Environmental management and inspection by public agencies are needed at reservoir sites used for recreation, tourism, and fishing. Finally, the study’s integrated methods proved satisfactory for assessing conservation dynamics and providing data to inform strategic planning for effective land use management focused on sustaining natural resources.