How accurate are estimates of flower visitation rates by pollinators? Lessons from a spatially explicit agent-based model

Abstract Despite the relevant services associated with insect pollinators, several species are considered to have undergone severe and widespread declines, which raise concerns about the future sustainability of ecosystems. Reliable estimates of pollinators' visitation rates to flowers are thus fundamental for supporting management and mitigation actions. A spatially explicit agent-based model was developed to investigate how plant species richness and pollinators' specialisation degree, within a gradient of pollinators abundance and landscape types, might influence accuracy of estimates of visitation rates. Visitation of plants by a generalist-specialist continuum within variable conditions was simulated with the purpose of reproducing pollination studies. Our results indicate that the accuracy of estimates of pollinators' visitation rates is influenced by the interplay between pollinators' specialisation, pollinators' abundances and type of landscape. We highlight the importance of fieldwork investigation to complement our results and compute adjustments in sampling effort for comparable estimates of pollinators' visitation rates from different landscapes and pollinator communities.