Climate Change and Road Safety: Projections within Urban Areas

Weather creates hazardous conditions of various types that increase the risk for road users. By examining the occurrence of weather-related hazards today and by projecting such occurrences into the future, the report documents the ways in which climate change may affect road safety. Climate change will not affect all parts of Canada in identical ways. The study provides detailed analysis for selected urban areas, and considers how climate change affects them in varying ways and to varying extents. The two objectives for the study were to: identify projected weather change trends, and; identify the collision trends as a result of the weather change. The magnitude of associated risks is based on statistical estimates of the extent to which road safety is compromised during weather. Some motor vehicle collision types also may be affected by climate change. To gain insight into this issue, collision attributes are compared during precipitation versus mostly dry, seasonal conditions. In this way, we identify the types of motor vehicle collisions that are over-represented during inclement weather. We then combine this information with projections of climate change in order to identify collision subsets that could be most affected by climate change. The continued importance of inclement weather for road safety outcomes in Canadian cities is highlighted within the report. The report documents the ways in which climate change may affect road safety, estimates the magnitude of associated risks, and identifies which motor vehicle collision types could be most affected by climate change and where they will take place in the future. (A)