The Brexit Transition Extension 2.0

The deadline for securing an extension to the ongoing Brexit transition is nearing fast. If the UK government refuses to request an extension now, what are the options to secure more time after the end of June deadline under the Withdrawal Agreement has elapsed? Looking at the different scenarios, which all involve huge uncertainties, this paper argues that the most legally sound option appears to be the conclusion of a mixed treaty; yet, this route is uncertain and contains significant political risks. While there is an urgent need for extending the Brexit transition period, the UK government is adamantly refusing to either ask for or accept an extension. It is highly unlikely that the government will change its mind before 1 July, the deadline stipulated by the Withdrawal Agreement to agree an extension of up to one or two years. However, the question of how to secure more time might resurface later this year. At the moment, Boris Johnson believes the immense time pressure to agree on a deal by the end of the year will concentrate minds and result in last-minute concessions from the EU. Once he realizes that the EU is not willing to compromise the integrity of the Single Market to grant him the deal he wants, the question about how to secure more time might be back on the agenda. While concluding a mixed agreement is legally speaking the soundest option, a lot of obstacles remain. It involves a lengthy ratification process and the likely return of vested interests and political disagreements that might rise to the surface within the UK and the EU. Overall, it is highly uncertain whether a late extension request can still be accommodated. By letting the deadline under the Withdrawal Agreement pass, the UK government increases the chances for a no deal outcome.