Expecting the Unexpected: Scenario Planning and Human Behaviour are Two Fundamental Components of Robust Infrastructure Strategy

Local government bodies in New Zealand are required to produce infrastructure strategies. The approaches we have seen to date are largely extended renewals plans. They have little to no interrelationship to growth strategies, or plans that are designed to influence, implement and manage growth in towns and cities. But true strategies, if well developed and implemented, can prevent ‘unexpected outcomes’ that happen all too often in both the private and public sectors. In this paper we propose that a good strategy is based on the following elements: • Scenario planning, to set the vision and a general approach to meeting it, • Spatial planning, to demonstrate where infrastructure (new and upgrades) will be required to meet the vision, • Consultation, to inform likely responses to future scenarios, acceptability of management approaches, likely spatial developments, and willingness to pay for future services, • Behavioural analysis, to test assumptions and stated responses from consultation, and • Lifecycle and renewals cost estimates to estimate the costs and affordability of proposed development plans Scenario planning, a technique originally developed in the military field, involves describing a handful of extreme but possible scenarios, and then proposing a handful of approaches for managing the world, regardless of the scenario. The analyst(s) then overlay each of the management approaches over each of the possible scenarios, and choose the management approach that either they are least likely to regret, or that is most likely to result in the scenario they are aiming at. Scenario planning propelled Royal Dutch Shell from 7 th to 2 nd largest petroleum company in the world, and the most profitable, while the rest of the world struggled through the energy crisis of the 1970s. Spatial planning has also been successfully used by local government in the United Kingdom and other parts of Europe to articulate future growth strategies, and achieve community acceptance and buy-in to the future growth direction of their towns and cities. Once the organisation has decided on their overall management approach, in the realm of public infrastructure, they must then decide where and how they want their cities and towns to develop. City and town development require the appropriate infrastructure, and fiscally responsible development requires that the infrastructure is not only affordable, but is also useful.