The European Council as a Key Driver of EU–Turkey Relations: Central Functions, Internal Dynamics, and Evolving Preferences

The many faces of the European Council make it a core component of the institutional machinery maintaining relations between the EU and third countries, including Turkey. This chapter identifies the European Council’s roles as the EU’s ‘master of enlargement’, ‘external voice and crisis manager’, and ‘agenda and direction setter’ as its three primary functions that drive the EU–Turkey relationship. The central focus of the chapter is the evolution of the European Council in framing relations with a candidate country—or what many now call a ‘strategic partner’—and the identification of the critical turning points and shifts in the central functions, internal dynamics, and preferences of this key institution. The findings indicate a growing trend toward a more conflictual, relatively hostile relationship between the European Council and Turkey as a result of diverging geopolitical interests—especially in the Eastern Mediterranean—and normative considerations. Furthermore, the analysis reveals an expanding impact of bilateral issues and member states’ individual preferences on the European Council’s role as a driver of EU–Turkey relations. Still, with their powers, the Heads of State or Government are likely to remain a key driver of the future trajectory of the relationship, demonstrating an increased interest in ‘thinking outside of the accession box’ and in framing a relationship model that would safeguard EU–Turkey relations amidst growing disagreements with Ankara.