Historical trends and future distribution of anchovy spawning in the Bay of Biscay

Abstract Future scenarios of fish stocks and the impacts of climate variability and change on fisheries are critical to anticipate and minimize potential economic losses in this sector. In this study, we assessed the impact of recent sea warming and future climate change on anchovy in the Bay of Biscay, where sea surface temperature has increased in the last three decades. We analyzed the historical evolution of the anchovy spawning and built species distribution models that are projected under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. The historical analysis of anchovy spawning showed that spawning peak advanced at a rate of 5.5 days/decade from 1987 to 2015, and the gonadosomatic index (as proxy of spawning activity) generally increased, which might be associated to changes in phytoplankton abundance. In addition, the spawning area expanded and contracted depending on the total egg production. In the future, the overall anchovy egg abundance in the Bay of Biscay is expected to increase between 1.05 and 2.66-fold under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario by the mid and end-of-the-21st-century, respectively. Projected environmental changes are expected to induce an expansion of the spawning area (7.8% and 16.4% for mid- and end-of-the-century) and higher egg densities.