Estimation of greenhouse gases (N2O, CH4 and CO2) from no-till cropland under increased temperature and altered precipitation regime: a DAYCENT model approach

Abstract Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions play an important role in regulating the Earth surface temperature. GHG emissions from soils are sensitive to climate change and land management practices. According to general circulation model (GCM) predictions, the Earth will experience a combination of increased temperature and altered precipitation regimes which may result in an increase or a decrease of GHG exchange. The effect of climate change on GHG emissions can be examined through both experiments and by applying process-based models, which have become more popular. The performance of those models can be improved significantly by appropriate calibration procedures. The objectives of this study are to: (i) calibrate the DAYCENT model using advance parameter estimation (PEST) software and to (ii) examine simulated GHG dynamics at daily and seasonal time-scales under a climate change scenario of increased temperature (2 °C) and a precipitation regime change where 40% of precipitation during the dry season was redistributed to the wet season. The algorithmic calibration improved the model performance by reducing the sum of weighted squared residual differences by up to 223% (decreased from 1635 to 505 g N 2 O-N ha − 1 d − 1 ) for N 2 O and 22% (decreased from 623 to 507% WFPS) for water filled pore space (WFPS) simulation results. In the altered climate scenario, total N 2 O and CO 2 fluxes decreased by 9% (from 2.31 to 2.10 kg N 2 O-N ha − 1  yr − 1 ) and 38% (from 1134.08 to 699.56 kg CO 2 ha − 1  yr − 1 ) respectively, whereas CH 4 fluxes increased by 10% (from 1.62 to 1.80 kg CH 4 ha − 1  yr − 1 ). Our results show a larger impact of altered climate on CO 2 as compared to N 2 O and CH 4 emissions. The main difference in all GHG emissions was observed in summer period due to drought conditions created by reduced precipitation and increased temperatures. However, the GHG dynamics can also be attributed to no-till practices which play an important role in changing the soil moisture conditions for aerobic and anaerobic microsites. These results are based on a process-based model, therefore, we suggest performing experimental studies to examine the GHG emissions under increased temperature and especially under altered precipitation regimes.