Spatial expansion regular pattern and driving factors of estuarine and coastal harbors

Abstract The port coastline is an important part of China's coastal zone, and changes to the port space and coastline profoundly impact the management and governance of China's coastal zone. Although port space has been widely examined, the regular pattern and driving factors of coastal port space expansion from a land use patch perspective remain unclear. We selected typical estuarine and coastal harbors and analyzed the basic regularity and driving factors of their spatial expansion using remote sensing and geographic information system technology. The regular patterns of estuarine and coastal harbors showed that because of their different locations, estuarine harbors have experienced an estuarine harbor stage, coexistence stage in estuarine and coastal harbors, and deep-water harbor stage. Furthermore, coastal harbors have experienced a coastal harbor stage, urban fringe, and deep-water harbor stage. Berths at ports, wharf lengths, port areas, port scopes, and port cargo demands also show phased characteristics. Analysis of the driving factors showed that in the early stage of port formation, geographical location significantly impacts estuarine harbors, with less pronounced effects on coastal harbors. Cargo demand has significant effects on the entire port expansion process. The influence of port engineering technology on coastal harbors was greater than that on estuarine harbors during the rapid port expansion stage. The impact of large-scale ships on estuarine harbors was greater than that on coastal harbors. This study provides information on port spatial expansion theories, which can aid port enterprises to better understand the regular pattern and driving factors of port development to improve development plans. Our findings also provide a reference for governmental agencies at all levels to formulate port planning, promulgate management policies, and provide basic data for future port and urban development in China.