Statistical modeling of a larval mosquito population distribution and abundance in residential Brisbane

Container-inhabiting mosquitoes such as Aedes notoscriptus, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus are potential vectors of a number of arboviruses of significance to human health and domestic animals. To assess the risk of mosquito-borne viruses, residential properties were surveyed for mosquito larvae within the Brisbane area during 2010–2012. A two-stage modeling approach was used to model both the presence/absence of Ae. notoscriptus larvae and abundance of larvae when present. Results indicate the total number of wet containers found on a property is the main driving factor of both presence/absence and abundance of Ae. notoscriptus larvae. The generalized additive modeling approach used indicates more standard logistic regression and odds ratios may overestimate the importance of common covariates. The two-stage modeling also potentially allows for predictions of Ae. notoscriptus abundance and common risk indices that are not possible using traditional logistic regression. Factors influencing the number of wet containers are explored with a view toward risk mitigation.