Predicting survival of lodgepole pine stands infected with western gall rust

The probability of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) having main-stem galls caused by western gall rust, Endocronartium harknessii (J.P. Moore) Y. Hiratsuka, surviving to rotation is unknown. To evaluate survival, 400 galled trees with at least one stem gall and 400 trees without stem galls were measured in 1992 in two precommercially thinned stands approximately 20 years old. The survival of trees was assessed in 2003. Nonlinear regression using iteratively reweighted least squares was employed to estimate the survival of galled trees as a function of the proportion of the main stem encircled by galls. Galls encircling >79% and >91% of the stem in the two stands increased the risk of mortality relative to non-galled trees, with the risk increasing steeply with percent gall encirclement; smaller stem galls did not cause tree mortality. The 11-year pattern of survival of galled trees was similar for infections that occurred on the main stem and those that had reached the stem from a nearby br...