A case study to predict the capacity fade of the battery of electrified vehicles in real-world use conditions

Abstract This work aims at combining recent capacity fade performance-based models for Lithium-ion batteries with the real-world vehicle driving data to develop a case study for predicting the capacity fade of the battery of electric vehicles. The study adopts the calendar and cycle capacity fade of three Li-ion chemistries in three different battery architectures combined with five different recharging strategies, delivering 220 scenarios in total. The results show that most of the combinations of Li-ion chemistries, battery architectures, and recharge strategies do not lead to battery capacity drop below 80% of its nominal value in less than 5 calendar years for a driving profile of up to 1,000 km/month. At higher monthly mileage, LiFePO4 and NCM battery chemistries with spinel Mn might have values below 5 years. Instead, NCM-LMO appears not to go below this threshold regardless of the mileage for a 16S-72P-6S battery architecture, with the first life above 10 years. The work also includes an experimental validation with a comparison between capacity fade predictions of NCM-LMO model with real-world measurements from two test-vehicles in a mileage accumulation test campaign.