Incidence of and mortality from COVID-19 in the older Brazilian population and its relationship with contextual indicators: an ecological study

Abstract Objective: to analyze the incidence of and mortality caused by COVID-19 in the older population in Brazil and its relationship with contextual variables. Methods: the 22 Brazilian states (including the Federal District) with 50 deaths or more due to COVID-19 by May 25th, 2020 were included. The rates of accumulated incidence, accumulated mortality and accumulated lethality among older adults were considered as dependent variables. Among the contextual variables, the provision of health services and professionals, and demographic, income and development indicators were included. The variables were analyzed in a descriptive and bivariate manner using Spearman’s correlation. Results: the state of Para had the highest incidence and mortality rate among older adults. The highest accumulated lethality rates among this population were observed in Bahia (56.46%), Rio de Janeiro (48.10%) and Pernambuco (40.76%). There was a significant negative moderate correlation between the accumulated incidence rate and the aging index (rho=-0.662; p=0.001) and the proportion of older adults (rho=-0.659; p=0.002); and between the mortality rate and the aging index (rho=-0.520; p=0.013) and the proportion of older adults (rho=-0.502; p=0.017). The accumulated incidence rate and mortality rate also revealed, respectively, a significant positive correlation with the proportion of black (Afro-Brazilian) and brown (mixed race) skinned people (rho=0.524; p=0.018 and rho=0.558; p=0.007) and with the income ratio (rho=0.665; p=0.0001 and rho=0.683; p<0.001). Conclusions: the Brazilian epidemiological situation shows that the mortality of older adults due to COVID-19 in Brazil is related to demographic and income distribution aspects.