Environmental and Socio-Demographic Determinants of Dengue Fever in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

Johns Hopkin University Dengue fever has increased exponentially in Sri Lanka, from 24.4 cases per 100,000 in 2003 to 165.3 per 100,000 population in 2013. Although early warning systems using predictor models have been previously developed in other settings, it is important to develop such models in each local setting. Further, the ability of these models to be applicable at smaller geographic units will enhance current vector control and disease surveillance measures. The aim of this paper was to identify environmental and socio-economic status (SES) risk factors that may predict dengue fever at the Gram Niladhari Divisions (GND) level (smallest administrative unit) in Colombo city, Sri Lanka. These factors included landcover classes, amount of vegetation, population density, water access and neighborhood SES as determined by roof type. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to develop the prediction model. A total 55 GND units covering an area of 37sq.km