Challenging Official Health Cost Estimates

Cost estimates of health care policy changes are extremely important. Historically, however, the US government has done a poor job in projecting the actual cost of new health care programmes. These projections have been inaccurate primarily because government forecasters use ‘static’ methods that fail to incorporate the change in people#x2019;s behaviour as a direct result of a new policy. In contrast, ‘dynamic’ forecasts incorporate the behavioural effects of policy changes on individuals and the economy.