Modeling and Forecasting of Innovative, Scientific and Technical Activity Indicators Under Unstable Economic Situation in the Country: Case of Ukraine

The indicated range of problems at the level of countries with developed scientific and innovative potential and unstable economic situation to which Ukraine belongs has a particular interest. The authors verify the hypothesis of the expected upward dynamics of Ukraine’s GDP under the influence of trends in the development of indicators of innovative and scientific and technical activity. The research is based on the official materials of Ukraine’s state institutions, for whose elaboration content analysis, methods of logic, comparison, and analogies are used. The fractal theory is applied to test the hypothesis, in particular, parametric methods of R/S-analysis (the nature of dynamic changes in the indicators of innovative and scientific and technical activity and the GDP of Ukraine are investigated and trends are identified) and the method of correlation-regression analysis (the nature, density, and direction of Ukraine’s GDP dependence on specific indicators of innovative and scientific and technical activity are evaluated). The research proves public demand, evaluates current trends, and makes forecasts of the indicators of innovative and scientific and technical activity and the GDP of Ukraine. It is revealed that the GDP of Ukraine correlates with the results of innovative and scientific and technical activity and will gradually increase under their influence. All the forecasting results point to the upward dynamics of Ukraine’s GDP. Despite the asymmetry of the trends of individual indicators of innovative and scientific and technical activity, the prospect of a generalized assessment of the effectiveness of this activity is evaluated positively.