A Critical Review on Lignocellulosic Biomass Yield Modeling and the Bioenergy Potential from Marginal Land

Lignocellulosic biomass from marginal land is needed for a social–ecologically sustainable bioeconomy transition. However, how much biomass can be expected? This study addresses this question by reviewing the limitations of current biomass yield modeling for lignocellulosic crops on marginal land and deriving recommendations to overcome these limitations. It was found that on the input side of biomass yield models, geographically limited research and the lack of universally understood definitions impose challenges on data collection. The unrecognized complexity of marginal land, the use of generic crop growth models together with data from small-scale field trials and limited resolution further reduce the comparability of modeling results. On the output side of yield models, the resistance of modeled yields to future variations is highly limited by the missing incorporation of the risk of land use changes and climatic change. Moreover, several limitations come with the translation of modeled yields into bioenergy yields: the non-specification of conversion factors, a lack of conversion capacities, feedstock yield–quality tradeoffs, as well as slow progress in breeding and the difficulty of sustainability criteria integration into models. Intensified political support and enhancement of research on a broad range of issues might increase the consistency of future yield modeling.