[Spatial-temporal distribution of human brucellosis and its correlation with the number of livestock in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, 2012-2018].

Objective: To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of human brucellosis (HB) in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (Ningxia) from 2012 to 2018 and the correlation between HB and the number of livestock stocks, so as to provide reference for the development of preventive measures. Methods: Data on the incidence of HB was collected from the Infectious Disease Report Information Management System of Ningxia, 2012 to 2018. Data related to HB incidence in Ningxia from 2012 to 2018 was then analyzed by global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation analysis methods through the geographic information system (GIS). SPSS (23.0) Spearman correlation was used to analyze the correlation between the incidence of HB and the number of cattle, sheep and pigs. Results: From 2012 to 2018, the incidence of HB showed an overall increase in Ningxia, with an annual growth in 2012-2015 but declined between 2015 and 2018. Results from the global autocorrelation analysis showed that the distribution of HB in the counties and districts of Ningxia appeared non-randomly, with Moran's I value as positive in 2012, 2013 and 2016 indicating the distribution was positive in space. Through local autocorrelation analysis, results showed that "H-H" concentration area was mainly concentrated in central while the "L-L" concentration area was mainly in the northern part of Ningxia. As for the results from correlation analysis between HB and animal husbandry, it showed that the incidence of HB was positively correlated with the number of sheep in stock (r=0.692, P=0.000). Conclusions: The epidemic situation of HB expressed different degrees of aggregation. Areas with high incidence were mostly concentrated in central Ningxia, and with certain degree of correlation with the number of sheep in stock. Corresponding measures should be taken to control the different aggregation situation. Programs on quarantine and immunization for sheep should also be strengthened.