[Discriminative value for AIDS case of erythrocyte sedimentation rate, immunoglobulins IgA and IgM, and beta 2-microglobulin in combination with the CD4+ lymphocyte count].

OBJECTIVE: To establish the probability to discriminate the evolution to "AIDS case" in relation to the common laboratory parametres in the follow-up of the HIV infection. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We have studied a cohort of 118 patients (1986-95) with HIV infection, 14 of them (12%) had clinical criteria for AIDS (CDC/93) during the follow-up. Clinical evaluations and CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes, beta 2M, IgG, IgA, IgM and E.S.R determinations were done. Multivariate analysis (RSIGMA) was done. with the initial laboratory values, according to the clinical diagnostic (AIDS and NO AIDS) done during the follow-up. RESULTS: By multiple logistic regression those laboratory variables with more predictor value for "AIDS CASE" were selected. With the initial value of these variables (E.S.R., beta 2M, IgA, IgM and CD4+ lymphocytes) and the clinical diagnostic of AIDS done during the follow-up, we did the linear discriminatory analysis between two groups (AIDS, NO AIDS) obtaining generalized distance between both groups of 3,4609 and a probability of classification error of 4%. A very significant difference (p < 0.001) was obtaining when we compare the variables' mean of each of the clinical groups. CONCLUSION: In the HIV infection the values of ESR, beta 2M, IgA and IgM in combination with the absolute value of the CD4+ lymphocytes allows to discriminate those patients who will develop AIDS with a probability of classifications error of 4%. This has clinical interest in absence of viral load and helps to take therapeutical decisions.