PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SEDIMENT YIELD OF WATERSHEDS

The HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) model has been used to predict the effects of climate change, realised in terms of temperature alterations and changes in precipitation, on the suspended sediment load of a small stream draining an agricultural watershed in Turkey. Three years of flow and sediment load data have been utilised to calibrate the watershed hydrological and sediment transport model and one year of data have been utilised to verify the model predictions. Climate change scenarios likely to occur in the 21 st century have been reflected into the input meteorological time series. The modified precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and temperature time series have then been used to produce suspended sediment loads carried by the stream draining the watershed and they have been compared with base simulation results. It has been aimed to develop a tool to couple climate change scenarios and watershed modeling in order to aid watershed management under the changing climate of the 21 st century.