Efecto del cambio climático en el maíz y frijol de Honduras evidenciado a través de la matriz de contabilidad social

It’s possible that climate change will cause a reduction in the production levels of corn and beans by the year 2020. The purpose of the study was to analyze changes in income of Honduran households caused by the reduction in production of corn and beans. To simulate the Honduran economy and do the experiment, the social accounting matrix method was used. The scenarios that were analyzed were three, an optimist, an expected and a pessimist scenario. Each scenario reduced the production of corn and beans by 2.50, 3.75 and 5.00%. To model the matrix endogenous and exogenous accounts were used. The exogenous accounts used were: government, capital account, and rest of the world. The endogenous accounts that were used were: commodities, activities, labor, capital, enterprises and households. Households were divided into four groups: urban skilled, urban non skilled, rural skilled and rural non skilled, being the difference between skilled and non-skilled the culmination of high school. Also in order to determine what components of the Honduran economy linked households with corn and beans the structural path analysis method was used. As a result climate change generates a negative effect to households, being informal labor, capital factor and enterprises the main transmitters of influence.