Prediction of the effectiveness of a health care organization system for Muscovites in case of scab

The present paper gives data on prediction of the number of Muscovites and homeless individuals who suffered from scab in 1998-2005. As of 2005, the difference in the expected and actual number of scab patients among the Muscovites and the homeless was 4.3 and 13% less than the expected values, respectively. At the same time the authors show that over 6 years (2005-2010) the incidence of scab will be able to reduce by 43.5 and 48.7% among the Muscovites and the homeless, respectively. Due to the extensive use of the inexpensive, safe, and most effective drugs medifox and medifox-super to treat scab and disinfect its foci, the efficiency of the treatment and prevention of scab has considerably increased. The above and other measures implemented by a dermatovenereological service and the concerned organizations improved the rating of Moscow: if it occupied the tenth place in the incidence of scab in 1999, then in 2003 it ranked third among the subjects of the Russian Federation.