Risks to pollinators from different land-use transitions: bee species\' responses to agricultural expansion show strong phylogenetic signal

Bee species worldwide are facing a future of further land-use change and intensification. Populations of closely-related species with similar ecological characteristics are likely to respond similarly to such pressures. Such phylogenetic signal in species9 responses could undermine the stability of pollination services in agricultural and natural systems. We use abundance data from a global compilation of bee assemblages in different land uses to assess the sensitivity of 573 bee species to agricultural expansion, intensification and urbanization; and combine the results with the Bee Tree of Life to assess phylogenetic signal. In addition, we assess whether variation in species9 sensitivity to land-use change is better explained by phylogenetic or available functional trait differences. Bee species show strong phylogenetic signal in sensitivity to agricultural land expansion but only a weak signal in sensitivity to agricultural intensification and urbanisation. Sensitivities were usually best explained by a combination of functional and phylogenetic distances. This finding suggests that the commonly-recorded traits, despite being meaningful as functional response traits, do not capture all important determinants of bee species9 vulnerability or resistance. However, it also suggests that model-based predictions of the sensitivity of poorly known species may be sufficient to help guide conservation efforts.