Revise refinery/distribution models to a regional basis. Final report

This project was conducted to demonstrate that DOE Regions are feasible geographical subdivisions of a domestic petroleum industry aggregating model that simulates the industry's entire operation from raw materials production to the satisfaction of products demands. The modeling system, developed for DOE on a different geographical basis in prior studies, has been successfully modified, validated and used to satisfy the requirements of this project. Basic project efforts were divided into eight different tasks. A summary of each task, including its description, completion date and reporting method, is included. Task 1 consisted of developing an appropriate data base and redesigning the modeling system to accommodate small groupings of states (Aggregator Model Areas) which could be combined in final reports to produce results on the basis of DOE Regions. Task 2 involved restructuring and validating a set of refinery linear programming (LP) models, and the same effort was required for the industry aggregator model under Task 3. Under Task 4, we determined that utilizing the 1985-normal supply and demand balances developed earlier in the project would be appropriate for efforts under this contract modification. Task 5 supported development of extreme yields for refinery operations within each modeled AMA. Task 6, an analysismore » of potential supply interruption scenarios, combined with DOE response strategies, was conducted along the lines of scenario/response strategies developed earlier under this contract. Results for Task 7 showed that it would not be necessary to divert remaining imported crude supplies away from the Gulf Coast during an emergency. Task 8 results provided DOE with the capability to estimate the impact on world crude markets of potential DOE strategies for acquiring crude supplies to be stored in SPR sites along the Gulf Coast.« less