Iran's nuclear future : critical U.S. policy choices

Abstract : The United States will face critical policy choices as Iran's nuclear program continues to evolve. Using an analytical framework designed for the new strategic environment, we focused on how to influence Iran in its future decisions, judging first that the Iranian leadership acts rationally, assessing costs and benefits in making its foreign policy decisions. Iran's national security interests (survival of the regime, protection of the homeland, and expansion of its regional influence) are unlikely to change, so the challenge for the United States is to affect the calculations of how the Iranian leadership pursues these interests. Iran's decisions regarding its nuclear program will be shaped primarily by its perception of the external environment (e.g., the U.S. threat) and the value placed on nuclear weapons in serving its national security interests. But different future Iranian nuclear postures are possible, and an internal political debate exists in Iran on the future of the nuclear program. This situation offers the United States a potential lever of influence.