CO-INTEGRATION AND CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA

The relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is becoming a hot issue in China.Studing the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth can help to achieve the carbon reduction targets in 2020.Based on the data of carbon emissions in China and economic growth from 1953 to 2008,this paper used co-integration,error correction model and Granger causality to study the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth.The results show that it exists long-run equilibrium relationship(co-integration relationship) between carbon emissions and economic growth in the long-run,economic growth increased by 1%,carbon emissions will increase by 0.36%,that is to say the long-term flexibility from carbon emissions to economic growth is 0.36.At the same time,it exists dynamic adjustment mechanism in the short-run.The non-equilibrium error terms ensure the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth.Error correction coefficient is negative(-0.669 4) and the direction of adjustment meets the error correction mechanism.The fitting result of this model is also ideal.Granger causality results show that it exists mutual causal relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth on the whole.To reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions,and decouple between carbon emissions and economic growth,the stratege of developing low-carbon economy,improving energy efficiency,developing non-fossil energy was put forward.