The Effects of the Timing of Childbirth on Female Labour Supply: An Analysis Using the Sequential Matching Approach

In this study, we estimate the effects of childbirth on female labour supply by using Japanese data. The novel contributions of our study are twofold. Firstly, we include the effects of unobserved preferences on female labour supply. Secondly, we apply a dynamic version of the sequential matching approach to analyse the causal effects of childbirth on female labour market outcomes. The estimated results show that childbirth decreases current employment outcomes (participation in regular and non-regular work) and that this decrease is larger for regular employees than for non-regular employees. On the timing of childbirth, while the negative effects of childbirth on regular work increase by delaying the age at childbirth, these negative effects on non-regular employment slightly decrease by delaying the age at childbirth. On future employment outcomes, childbirth does not affect the probability of choosing non-regular work in the next period regardless of childbearing age. By contrast, delayed childbirth decreases the probability of choosing regular work in the next period significantly.