Early predictors of summative assessment performance in general practice post-graduate training: A retrospective cohort study

AbstractBackground: Success in summative general practice (GP) training assessments is one indicator of competence for practice. Early-training factors predictive of outcomes would facilitate targeted interventions aimed at preventing candidate failures.Methods: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of Australian GP trainees in two training organizations over five years. Associations of pre-training and early-training predictors with summative examination scores in an Applied Knowledge Test (AKT), Key Features Paper (KFP), and Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE), plus failure on any one of these, were tested via univariate and multivariable regression. Predictors were program-entry selection-score decile, pre-training-commencement multiple choice assessment (MCQA), direct observation of practice performance, and clinical supervisor reports.Results: On univariate analyses, selection decile and MCQA were associated with all outcomes except AKT. There were no associations of other predictors...