The role of variability in night-time mean heart rate on the prediction of ventricular arrhythmias and all-cause mortality in implantable cardioverter defibrillator patients

Aims This study was to use implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) home monitoring (HM) feature to evaluate the role of mean night-time heart rate (MNHR) in the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and mortality. Methods and results This study retrospectively analysed clinical and ICD device data in 318 ICD patients. Data of the first 30-day MNHR (recorded 02:00–06:00 am) by HM were collected. The average and standard deviation of 30-day MNHR (AVHR and SDHR, respectively) were then determined in each patient. The primary endpoint was appropriate ICD treatment of VAs. The secondary endpoint was all-cause mortality. During a mean follow-up period of 32 ± 10 months, 179 of the 318 patients (56.3%) experienced VAs, 123 patients (38.7%) were treated by ICD shocks, and 37 patients (11.6%) died. The overall SDHR in this study cohort was 4.5 ± 3.0 bpm. Based on the receiver operating characteristic curve, the cut-off value of SDHR = 3.685 bpm was identified to predict VAs. In the Kaplan–Meier survival, SDHR ≥ 3.685 bpm was associated with increased VAs [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.885; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.362–2.609; P < 0.001], shock events (HR = 1.637; 95% CI = 1.11–2.414; P = 0.013), all-cause mortality (HR = 2.42; 95% CI = 1.266–4.627; P = 0.008), and the combined endpoints (HR = 1.872; 95% CI = 1.365–2.567; P < 0.001). In univariate and multivariate Cox models (adjusting for clinical factors), SDHR ≥ 3.685 bpm was still an independent predictor for all endpoints. Conclusion In ICD population, SDHR ≥ 3.685 bpm was an independent predictor for VAs and all-cause mortality.