Evidence for penetrance in patients without a family history of disease: a systematic review

Family-based penetrance is frequently cited as a major challenge for translating penetrance estimates from familial populations to asymptomatic populations. A systematic review was performed to assess the literature evidencing penetrance estimates in patients without a family history of disease, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) framework. Initially 1592 papers were identified, which were filtered to a final nine, through application of inclusion and exclusion criteria. Fundamental differences in the identified papers prevented combination of papers using meta-analysis, so thematic analysis to produce a narrative synthesis was performed. Key themes included disease risk modifiers, evidence, study limitations and bias. A methodological appraisal too was used to assess quality of included studies. It is evident from the findings that the evidence base for penetrance estimates in individuals without a family history of disease is limited. Future work is needed to refine design of penetrance studies and the impact of incorrect estimates.