Bayesian skyline plot inference of the Toscana virus epidemic: a decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years.

Abstract Toscana virus (TosV), a sandfly fever virus, is one of the main causes of the aseptic meningitis that occurs during the summer in some Mediterranean regions, and whose epidemiology is largely unknown. We used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach and a relaxed molecular clock to estimate the demographic history of the TosV infection in a series of isolates sampled between 1980 and 2003. The estimated mean evolutionary rate was 2.5 × 10 −4 substitutions per site per year (95% HPD: 0.31–5.44 × 10 −4  subs/site/year). Bayesian skyline plot revealed a sharp decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years. In conclusion, our data suggest that continuous and prolonged perturbations of vector/phlebovirus interactions due to the relatively recent climate changes may have contributed to gradually reducing the viral population in endemic areas.