Landslides in the Andes: Forests can provide cost-effective landslide regulation services

Abstract Landslides cause billions of dollars (USD) in damage and hundreds of life losses every year in mountainous areas globally, and these effects are exacerbated by climate change and increased human occupation of vulnerable areas. In many mountainous regions forests deliver slope stability, helping to prevent landslides. However, forests are progressively converted into other land uses in many mountainous regions. In this study, we focus on the Colombian Andes, the most populated and deadly landslide-prone part of Colombia. We aim to determine the difference in frequency of landslides from forested and non-forested areas, and subsequently, quantify the potential costs and benefits of protecting forest and of restoring forest from agricultural lands. To that end, we combine economic data with geographical information related to public and private infrastructure, land use, and landslide susceptibility. Analyzing the national landslide database of Colombia, we established that landslides are almost six times (581%) more likely to occur on non-forested lands than on forested lands. From an economic perspective, by preventing landslides, forests provide a net benefit through the provision of slope stability services. Our most conservative estimates indicate it is 16 times more cost-effective to promote forest corridors, via conservation or reforestation along roads by paying farmers and cattle herders their opportunity costs, than for the public to pay the expected value of landslide damage. Our analysis provides strong evidence that vegetated hillsides can provide a cost-effective ecosystem service approach to mitigate economic losses due to landslides in one of the world's most landslide prone areas.