Optimization Method for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, was discovered in Wuhan, China, and has spread to different cities in China as well as to 24 other countries. The number of confirmed cases is increasing daily and reached 34,598 on 8 February 2020. In the current study, we present a new forecasting model to estimate and forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the upcoming ten days based on the previously confirmed cases recorded in China. The proposed model is an improved adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using an enhanced flower pollination algorithm (FPA) by using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). In general, SSA is employed to improve FPA to avoid its drawbacks (i.e., getting trapped at the local optima). The main idea of the proposed model, called FPASSA-ANFIS, is to improve the performance of ANFIS by determining the parameters of ANFIS using FPASSA. The FPASSA-ANFIS model is evaluated using the World Health Organization (WHO) official data of the outbreak of the COVID-19 to forecast the confirmed cases of the upcoming ten days. More so, the FPASSA-ANFIS model is compared to several existing models, and it showed better performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), and computing time. Furthermore, we tested the proposed model using two different datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in two countries, namely the USA and China. The outcomes also showed good performances. A novel coronavirus was reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) in China on 31 December 2019. The WHO named the disease COVID-19 on 11 February 2020. As of 26 February 2020, the disease has been detected on all continents, except for Antarctica. Daily updates on COVID-19 since early February 2020 have made headline news worldwide for much of 2020. This editorial evaluates risk management based on the Global Health Security (GHS) Index of global health security capabilities in 195 countries. The GHS Index lists the countries best prepared for an epidemic or pandemic. COVID-19 is compared with two related coronavirus epidemics, SARS and MERS, in terms of the number of reported human infections, deaths, countries, major country clusters, timelines, and the likelihood of discovering a safe, effective, and approved vaccine. The present work aims to design and synthesize novel series of spiro pyrazole-3,3’-oxindoles analogues and investigate their bioactivity as antioxidant and antimicrobial agents, as well as antiproliferative potency against selected human cancerous cell lines (i.e., breast, MCF-7; colon, HCT-116 and liver, HepG-2) relative to healthy noncancerous control skin fibroblast cells (BJ-1). The mechanism of their cytotoxic activity has been also examined by immunoassaying the levels of key anti- and proapoptotic protein markers. The analytical and spectral data of the all synthesized target congeners were compatible with their structures. Synthesized compounds showed diverse moderate to powerful antimicrobial and antioxidant activities. Results of MTT assay revealed that seven synthesized compounds (i.e., 11a, 11b, 12a, 12b, 13b, 13c and 13h) particularly exhibited significant cytotoxicity against the three cancerous cell lines under investigation. Ranges of IC50 values obtained were 5.7–21.3 and 5.8–37.4 µg/mL against HCT-116 and MCF-7, respectively; which is 3.8 and 6.5-fold (based on the least IC50 values) more significant relative to the reference chemotherapeutic drug doxorubicin. In HepG-2 cells, the analogue 13h the highest cytotoxicity with IC50 value of 19.2µg/mL relative to doxorubicin (IC50 = 21.6µg/mL). The observed cytotoxicity was specific to cancerous cells, as evidenced by the minimal toxicity in the noncancerous control skin-fibroblast cells. ELISA results indicated that the observed antiproliferative effect against examined cancer cell lines is mediated via engaging the activation of apoptosis as illustrated by the significant increase in proapoptotic protein markers (p53, bax and caspase-3) and reduction in the antiapoptotic marker bcl-2. Taken together, results of the present study emphasize the potential of spiro pyrazole-oxindole analogues as valuable candidate anticancer agents against human cancer cells.