FORECASTING DISTRIBUTION OF INTERZONAL VEHICULAR TRIPS BY SUCCESSIVE APPROXIMATIONS /WITH DISCUSSION/
1954
THE OBJECT OF THE SUCCESSIVE-APPROXIMATION METHOD FOR FORECASTING INTERZONAL VEHICULAR TRIPS IS THE DETERMINATION OF THE MOST-LOGICAL DISTRIBUTION OF TRIPS EXPECTED TO BE MADE IN A GIVEN AREA UNDER DEFINITE CONDITIONS OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE PROCEDURE IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE A DISTRIBUTION COMPATIBLE WITH THE APPARENT RELATIVE ATTRACTIVENESS OF EACH TYPE OF MOVEMENT AND WITH DIFINITE ASSUMPTIONS AS TO THE TOTAL NUMBER OF TRIPS GENERATED BY EACH ZONE. THE PROCEDURE REQUIRES THAT REGIONAL PLANNING INFORMATION BE AVAILABLE FOR ESTIMATING THE TOTAL TRAFFIC EXPECTED TO ENTER AND LEAVE EACH TRAFFIC ZONE OF THE AREA UNDER THE NEW SET OF CONDITIONS FOR WHICH THE DISTRIBUTION IS DESIRED. THE METHOD ALSO REQUIRES THAT ORIGIN-AND- DESTINATION DATA BE AVAILABLE FOR A GIVEN DATE AND THAT A RELATIONSHIP BE ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS AS OF THE DATE OF THE ORIGIN-AND-DESTINATION DATA AND THE DATE FOR WHICH THE NEW DISTRIBUTION IS DESIRED. WITH THE BASIC INFORMATION THE SUCCESSIVE-APPROXIMATION METHOD BREAKS DOWN THE ANTICIPATED TOTAL TRIPS FOR EACH TRAFFIC ZONE INTO INTERZONAL VOLUMES WHICH WILL FIT THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN AND BE COMPATIBLE WITH THE CONDITIONS ASSUMED TO EXIST. /AUTHOR/
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