Connecting Indonesian Fires and Drought With the Type of El Niño and Phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole During 1979–2016

This study advances the previous understanding of the role of climate variability on Indonesian fire activity, by considering (i) the presence of different types of El Nino and (ii) the interaction between El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We classify 12 El Nino events during 1979-2016 into Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types (four and eight El Nino events, respectively) and analyze observational data of sea surface temperature, precipitation, drought code, biomass burning carbon emission, visibility, and aerosol optical depth accordingly. We find that more intense and prolonged Indonesian drought and fires occur in the EP type, during which the emitted carbon amounts almost double those in the CP type. By further separating the CP type El Nino according to the phase of the IOD, that is, positive and negative, we show that fire seasons with less burning intensity and shorter duration are predominantly associated with weakly positive or even negative phase of the IOD phenomena. Moreover, fire intensity exhibits geographic diversity: fires are always more intensive in southern Kalimantan than in southern Sumatra in all El Nino events, although it is less dry in the former region. The outcome of this study can be applied to drought early warning, fire management, and air quality forecast in Indonesia and adjacent areas by identifying the type of El Nino and the phase of the IOD in advance.