The Non-existing Indian Ocean Dipole Mode

Current research of Indian Ocean SST variability focus on the tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Mode, which were motivated by the Saji et al. [1999] and Webster [1999] articles about an IOD Mode independent of ENSO. The presentation will critically discuss the evidence for an IOD mode based on three different arguments: 1) Objective analysis of the spatial structure of Indian Ocean SST variability. 2) The conceptual Bjerknes feedbacks are analysed in the context of the ENSO recharge oscillator. 3) Predictability of Indian Ocean SST indices are study in state of the art coupled general circulation forecast systems and in a simple statistical model forced with ENSO. The talk will conclude with a description of the truly important structures of Indian Ocean SST modes.