An approximation to the prediction of the summery emergence of Ochlerotatus caspius (Diptera: Culicidae) based on the relationship between degree-days accumulations and adult captures

Ochlerotatus caspius (Pallas) (Diptera, Culicidae) is the most abundant culicidae during the summer in the Huelva Marshes (SW of Spain). This study proves that the relationship between adult captures, turned to probit indexes, and temperature accumulations or degree-days, conveniently modifi ed by a logarithmic transformation, shows to be signifi cantly linear for each generation of this mosquito throughout the year. Jointly processing all data of the available years also results in a high linear correlation, statistically signifi cant, and, consequently, the proposed equations have predictive value. The reliability of the forecast based on the resulting log-probit have shown to be acceptable in order to be considered as an useful tool to improve the effectiveness of the integrated pest management in the area.