Life cycle methods to analyze the environmental sustainability of electricity generation in Ecuador: Is decarbonization the right path?

Abstract Electricity is the main energy carrier in today's society and plays a vital role in a sustainable future. Based on the Ecuadorian experience, the goal of this study is to analyze the environmental performance of current and forecasted scenarios of electricity generation and supply using life cycle methods, as a basis to discuss the appropriateness of current policy strategies towards a decarbonized future. The environmental impacts of the electricity mix are dominated by the emissions generated by fossil fuels burning during electricity generation. Results show that increasing the share of hydroelectricity decreases the environmental impacts per kWh considerably, but the environmental performance of net electricity generated in the country is also shaped by the growing energy demand for electricity. The global warming potential of net electricity generation is from 12 to 20 times higher by 2050 over 2016 levels for all scenarios. National policies on energy sustainability will not mitigate the Ecuadorian electricity environmental impacts, due to the growing demand for electricity. Moreover, there are risks to the energy security of Ecuador in the future, as fossil resources scarcity is expected, and climate change uncertainties may pose challenges to the future harnessing of hydropower. Targeting GHG reductions must address the challenge of demand reduction. Furthermore, policy focused on climate change could potentially lead to adverse consequences in other areas: decarbonization alone does not tell the whole story of the requirements for a transition to sustainability.