Seeing the 20th Century Warming from Temperature Changes of Winter-Half-Year in Eastern China for the Last 2000 Years

Based on the temperature changes series of Winter-Half-Year in eastern China for the last 2000 years, the situation of the 20th century warming within a context of the past 2000 years is analyzed from the three aspects of changing amplitude, rate, and historical analogue. The results are summarized as follows: (1) Although it has been critically warm, the temperature of the 20th century in eastern China is still within the threshold of the variability of the last 2000 years. Substantially the 20th century warming is prominent and rapid from the cool epoch (i.e., the Little Ice Age) with a high rate of 1.1 oC/100a. (2) On a century scale, the temperature anomaly of the 20th century is lower than that of the 1200s-1310s, 570s-770s, and 930s-1100s, which are the late warm stage of Mediaeval Warm Period (MWP), the Sui and Tang dynasties warm period, and the early warm stage of MWP, respectively. (3) Analysis suggests that the most possible analogue type of the 20th century warming is that of the Sui and Tang dynasties warm period (570s-770s) instead of that of MWP. Additionally, the temperature of the 20th century has been rising dramatically since the 1980s, which is possibly influenced by the increasing green-house-effect induced by human activities.