Assessment of regional air quality resulting from emission control in the Pearl River Delta region, southern China

Abstract To evaluate the impact of emission control measures on the air quality in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of South China, statistic data including atmospheric observations, emissions and energy consumptions during 2006–2014 were analyzed, and a Weather Research and Forecasting - Community Multi-scale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model was used for various scenario simulations. Although energy consumption doubled from 2004 to 2014 and vehicle number significantly increased from 2006 to 2014, ambient SO 2 , NO 2 and PM 10 were reduced by 66%, 20% and 24%, respectively, mainly due to emissions control efforts. In contrast, O 3 increased by 19%. Model simulations of three emission control scenarios, including a baseline (a case in 2010), a CAP (a case in 2020 assuming control strength followed past control tendency) and a REF (a case in 2020 referring to the strict control measures based on recent policy/plans) were conducted to investigate the variations of air pollutants to the changes in NO x , VOCs and NH 3 emissions. Although the area mean concentrations of NO x , nitrate and PM 2.5 decreased under both NO x CAP (reduced by 1.8%, 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively) and NO x REF (reduced by 7.2%, 1.8% and 0.3%, respectively), a rising of PM 2.5 was found in certain areas as reducing NO x emissions elevated the atmospheric oxidizability. Furthermore, scenarios with NH 3 emission reductions showed that nitrate was sensitive to NH 3 emissions, with decreasing percentages of 0–10.6% and 0–48% under CAP and REF, respectively. Controlling emissions of VOCs reduced PM 2.5 in the southwestern PRD where severe photochemical pollution frequently occurred. It was also found that O 3 formation in PRD was generally VOCs-limited while turned to be NO x -limited in the afternoon (13:00–17:00), suggesting that cutting VOCs emissions would reduce the overall O 3 concentrations while mitigating NO x emissions in the afternoon could reduce the peak O 3 levels.