Off-farm labor market decisions and agricultural shocks among rural households in Kenya

Using household level data from rural Kenya, this article explores whether and how farm households respond to unfavorable agricultural production environments, including any ex post adjustments in off-farm labor supply in response to unexpected weather shocks. While controlling for a wide range of educational, demographic, and other locational factors, we examine how long-term weather conditions and specific rainfall shocks influence a household's decision to engage in, and their earnings from, the off-farm labor market. We find that rural households engage in off-farm work as a long-term strategy to deal with the effects of anticipated weather conditions on their farming operations. The analysis does not reveal major short-term adjustments in off-farm engagement as a result of specific, unexpected rainfall shocks; these households do however rely on remittance income and petty agricultural wage labor under these circumstances. Holding other factors constant, and conditional on participation, households in areas with a more productive local agriculture tend to earn more from off-farm work especially in the informal/business sector than their counterparts in regions with a less productive agriculture. As expected, a vibrant local economy in the form of public investment increases the probability of off-farm participation.