Data-Based Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting of the novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak

Since the first suspected case of novel coronavirus (2019 nCoV) infected pneumonia (NCIP) on December 1st, 2019, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, a total of 40,235 confirmed cases and 909 deaths have been reported in China up to February 10, 2020, evoking fear locally and internationally. Here, based on the publicly available epidemiological data (WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY) for Hubei from January 11 to February 10, 2020, we provide estimates of the main epidemiological parameters, i.e. the basic reproduction number (R0) and the infection, recovery and mortality rates, along with their 90% confidence intervals. As the number of infected individuals, especially of those with asymptomatic or mild courses, is suspected to be much higher than the official numbers, we have repeated the calculations under a scenario that considers five times the number of confirmed infected cases and eight times the number of recovered. Our computations and analysis were based on a mean field Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model. Thus, based on the SIRD simulations, the estimated average value of R0 was found to be 2.5, while the one computed by the official counts of the confirmed cases from the 11th of January until the 18th of January was found to be 4.6. Furthermore, on the estimated parameters from both scenarios, we provide tentative three-week forecasts of the evolution of the outbreak at the epicenter. Our forecasting flashes a note of caution for the presently unfolding outbreak in China. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the cumulative number of infected will surpass 68,000 (as a lower bound) and could reach 140,000 (with an upper bound of 290,000) by February 29. Regarding the number of deaths, simulations forecast that on the basis of current data and estimations on the official count of infected people in the population, the death toll might exceed 7,000 by February 29; however, our analysis further reveals a significant decline of the mortality rate to which various factors may have contributed, such as the severe control measures taken in Hubei, China (e.g. quarantine and hospitalization of infected individuals), but also a high underestimation of the number of infected and recovered people in the population, which will hopefully lower the death toll.