Sensitivity of soil freeze/thaw dynamics to environmental conditions at different spatial scales in the central Tibetan Plateau

Abstract An enhanced understanding of environmental controls on soil freeze/thaw (F/T) dynamics at different spatial scales is critical for projecting permafrost responses to future climate conditions. In this study, a 1-D soil thermal model and multi-scale observation networks was used to investigate the sensitivity of soil F/T dynamics in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) to environmental conditions at local (~10 km)-, medium- (~30 km), and large (~100 km)- scales. Model simulated soil temperature profile generally agrees well with the observations, with root-mean-square errors (RMSE) lower than 1.3 °C and 2.0 °C for two in-situ networks, respectively. Model simulated maximum frozen depths (MFD) closely related to elevation (R2 = 0.23, p